Monday, June 16, 2008

Paraskavedekatriaphobia

With the markets gyrating and the economy struggling, it is a bit of bad timing to have an unlucky day upon us. But the calendar rules and today is Friday the 13th. A few years ago, I actually conducted research about this day because I wanted to convince my client that investing on the 13th would not pose a serious threat.

I know that some people are watching themselves today, but I have always loved Friday the thirteenth--not the horror movies, which I never understood, but the notion that any random date can create investor anxiety. The fear of Friday the 13th is called paraskavedekatriaphobia, paraskevidekatriaphobia or friggatriskaidekaphobia, a specialized form of triskaidekaphobia, a fear of the number thirteen.

The origin of the Friday the 13th superstition has been linked to the belief that there were 13 people at The Last Supper of Jesus, but it has also been linked to the fact that a lunisolar calendar must have 13 months in some years, while the solar Gregorian calendar and lunar Islamic calendar always have 12 months in a year. Another suggestion is that the belief originated in a Norse myth about twelve gods having a feast in Valhalla. The mischievous Loki gate-crashed the party as an uninvited 13th guest and arranged for Hod, the blind god of darkness, to throw a branch of mistletoe at Balder, the god of joy and gladness. Balder was killed instantly and the Earth was plunged into darkness and mourning as a result. Taken together, the number 13 has had a tough time.

To some extent, the fear of the 13th has become a bit self-fulfilling. Because people are tense and anxious, they tend to have more accidents or fall ill on the day. According to the Stress Management Center and Phobia Institute in Asheville, North Carolina, it estimated that in the US alone, $800-900 million is lost in business each Friday the 13th because some people will not travel or go to work, not to mention that maybe some are not investing on this day!

According to Rabo Securities, when comparing the Dow Jones Industrial performance on a typical Friday from 1955 to 2005 to those times when the 13th day of the month fell on a Friday, the index actually performed better on the unlucky 13th! Before you get too excited, the difference was only fractional, so I am back to my original concept…thirteen is only a number and it’s only a day, so go ahead --- overcome your Paraskavedekatriaphobia and feel free to invest!

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