The have strange and eerie examples of symmetry in this stock market crash of 2008. On Wednesday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 508 points—the exact same point drop as the crash of 1987. Then yesterday, on the one year anniversary of the all-time high of the Dow Jones Industrial Average, stocks plunged in the last hour of trading, leaving the blue-chip measure is down 39.4% from its record a year ago.
The day did not start off so bad, despite global big sell-offs that preceded the opening bell. Then at about 2:30 or so, the selling accelerated as hedge funds had to sell holdings to raise collateral and reduce leverage, mutual funds had to execute redemptions as smaller investors reduced exposure or bailed out completely and computerized trading kicked in as stocks traded below specific benchmarks. The damage was severe and intense: the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 678.91 points, or 7.3%, to close at 8579.19, the S&P 500 shed 7.6% to end at 909.92; the Nasdaq Composite Index fell 5.5% to 1645.12, the small-stock Russell 2000 tumbled 8.7% to 499.20. No sector was spared in the broad-based selling.
What’s an investor to do in the midst of this mess? Here are nine survival tips for those who want to take action right now to help control their destinies:
1) GET PERSONAL: Sure the market is in turmoil and it is scary, but your personal situation should guide decisions made in this very emotional time. The first step is to figure out where you stand and more specifically, you should understand the status of your "BIG THREE": 1) Emergency cash reserves 2) Current level of debt 3) Current retirement contribution. If you have very little cash on hand, consider stockpiling your reserves so that you have 3-6 months of living expenses--this is especially important if you think that your job is at risk (i.e. EVERYONE). If you have consumer debt, make sure that you pay off higher interest loans first. For some, this may necessitate making some tough decisions--but the exercise will lead you to...
2) DEVELOP A CASH FLOW: This is an empowering part of the process. Considering that everyone feels out of control right now, the simple technique of identifying what is coming in and what is going out can help you come up with a short, intermediate and long term game plans. The process is hard, but well worth the effort and should leave you understanding that which is in your power to control.
3) RETIREMENT: If cash flow can afford it, DO NOT PULL-BACK ON RETIREMENT CONTRIBUTIONS. I know, this is hard one, but you can identify choices within your retirement plan that may have somewhat reduced levels (fixed accounts, bond funds). Your specific time horizon and risk tolerance will help you come to a proper allocation.
4) REVIEW YOUR ASSET ALLOCATION: For some people the process of selecting investments was not well thought out. It's time to see how much money is allocated to stocks, commodities, bonds and cash. If you need your money within two years and all of the investments are in stocks, this is going to hurt...you MUST reduce your exposure and bite the bullet. Unfortunately, if you needed your money within that time horizon, you probably should not have had an allocation that was heavily invested in risk assets. Now that mistake is behind you, so you are going to have to fix it.
5) IDENTIFY YOUR RISK TOLERANCE: During years when the stock market is rising, I have seen clients gloss over the question, "How would you feel if your account dropped by 30% in a given year? Of course now you know exactly how you feel and maybe you aren't so able to assume risk. That said, remember if you shift your allocation, maybe from growth-oriented to more balanced, you can't second-guess yourself and switch back to Growth when things smooth out. This is so hard, because as human beings, we always get greedy at the top and fearful at the bottom. But if you choose a portfolio with a lower risk level, you must assume that when the market recovers, you will not participate as fully in the upside. The idea of sleeping at night is pretty important, so if your accounts are keeping you up, rake action. MOST RETIREMENT PLANS OFFER A RISK ASSESSMENT ON LINE--TAKE IT!!!
6) WHERE TO HIDE NOW: Cash or cash equivalents may seem great (hey, they are not going down, right?) but of course over the long term, staying in cash will not help you grow your money faster than inflation. That said, remember that FDIC insurance recently kicked up to $250K per account and that the government is backing up money market accounts. You can also buy bills, notes and bonds directly from the US government at http://www.treasurydirect.com/
7) BEWARE BIG SALES PITCHES: When we are fearful, we tend not to make the greatest decisions. So if someone (a broker, salesman, etc) is pushing something right now that "guarantees your principal," you should understand that most guarantees come at a cost. Try not to tie up your money for a significant length of time right now.
8) TURN IT OFF SOMETIMES: The current crisis is replete with scary music and graphics. Once you have assessed your personal situation and made some choices, its OK to tune out from the 24/7 coverage.
9) And my personal favorite: Y & A: During tumultuous times, try to find ways to relax...for me, it's yoga and alcohol, but not at the same time!
Friday, October 10, 2008
Thursday, October 9, 2008
Day of Atonement
Today is the holiest day of the Jewish calendar—Yom Kippur, or the Day of Atonement. While you are reading this, I am sitting in temple trying to ignore the growling in my stomach. (One of the rituals for Yom Kippur is fasting.) In honor of the day, it is worthwhile to think about things we might have done better over the past year. Although I am sure that this is sacrilegious in some way, this article is devoted to those things that we could have done better in our financial lives over the past year.
1) Be more patient with clients who are reluctant to do the things that they should. Perhaps it’s a sign that I care a great deal about my clients, but I tend to become a little anxious when they do not proceed with the planning items that are important. This can range from the big stuff, like estate planning and insurance coverage, to smaller issues, like making adjustments to withholding to improve cash flow. I sometimes forget that it often takes people a while to act and that a gentle nudge every now and then is all they need, not a speech.
2) Try not to be exasperated when repeating important concepts. Recently a long-time client told me she was listening to the radio show and finally understood how bonds worked. I said, “Alice, haven’t I gone over that with you in the past?” She said, “Of course, but it just really sunk in for real last Saturday!” Many of the concepts that I talk about with people have never been fully explained to them. Additionally, there is so much shame around not knowing, that people may not even tell you when they do not really get it.
3) Be more patient with prospective clients who are having difficulty deciding what to do. There have been occasions when I am so sure that I can help someone that I can’t understand why they will not proceed. The reason is that wealth management is an extremely emotional issue that weaves some of our biggest fears in with our most glorious hopes. Some people need one meeting to unravel the issues, some need two, and some need a longer time to sit with an idea before coming to a decision.
4) Try not to second-guess every trade. You would think that after twenty plus years doing this, I would know that you just can’t get it right on every decision. Still, I find that in the moment, I can beat myself up for not getting it spot-on. This does not mean that I ignore mistakes, but I have to be a little more forgiving in the process.
5) Be more compassionate. Let’s face it -- these are trying times for everyone. I am sure that there has been more than a few times over the past month, when I may have not been quite as understanding as I could have been with clients who are really scared. It doesn’t matter whether I think that they will be OK—they really need to feel it. In fact, as we move through this time, maybe it wouldn’t be so bad if we could all be a little nicer to each other…
1) Be more patient with clients who are reluctant to do the things that they should. Perhaps it’s a sign that I care a great deal about my clients, but I tend to become a little anxious when they do not proceed with the planning items that are important. This can range from the big stuff, like estate planning and insurance coverage, to smaller issues, like making adjustments to withholding to improve cash flow. I sometimes forget that it often takes people a while to act and that a gentle nudge every now and then is all they need, not a speech.
2) Try not to be exasperated when repeating important concepts. Recently a long-time client told me she was listening to the radio show and finally understood how bonds worked. I said, “Alice, haven’t I gone over that with you in the past?” She said, “Of course, but it just really sunk in for real last Saturday!” Many of the concepts that I talk about with people have never been fully explained to them. Additionally, there is so much shame around not knowing, that people may not even tell you when they do not really get it.
3) Be more patient with prospective clients who are having difficulty deciding what to do. There have been occasions when I am so sure that I can help someone that I can’t understand why they will not proceed. The reason is that wealth management is an extremely emotional issue that weaves some of our biggest fears in with our most glorious hopes. Some people need one meeting to unravel the issues, some need two, and some need a longer time to sit with an idea before coming to a decision.
4) Try not to second-guess every trade. You would think that after twenty plus years doing this, I would know that you just can’t get it right on every decision. Still, I find that in the moment, I can beat myself up for not getting it spot-on. This does not mean that I ignore mistakes, but I have to be a little more forgiving in the process.
5) Be more compassionate. Let’s face it -- these are trying times for everyone. I am sure that there has been more than a few times over the past month, when I may have not been quite as understanding as I could have been with clients who are really scared. It doesn’t matter whether I think that they will be OK—they really need to feel it. In fact, as we move through this time, maybe it wouldn’t be so bad if we could all be a little nicer to each other…
Wednesday, October 8, 2008
508…an eerily familiar number
In my office, I have a photo of an old Quotron machine from the eighties. On it, the following jumps out at the trained eye: DJIA -508. The photo was taken on Monday, October 19th, the day that the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 22.6%. Yesterday, it was déjà vu---another 508 point drop, but this time the point total did not amount to 22%, but 5.1% was plenty, thank you very much!
The selling was not prompted by anything new—same old credit crisis which has now morphed into blind fear. After gains at the start of the session, stocks turned down steadily and the losses accelerated, leaving the Dow down 508.39 points, or 5.1%, at 9447.11, its lowest close since Sept. 30, 2003. The Dow shed nearly 13% in the past 5 trading sessions, the largest drop since September 2001. The 1403.55-point decline was the Dow's biggest 5-day drop ever, and that doesn't include a 778-point drop on Sept. 29. The Dow is now down 33% from its record high reached almost exactly a year ago.
The damage was worse for the S&P 500, which closed yesterday below the psychologically important 1000 level for the first time since Sept. 30, 2003. The S&P fell 60.66 points, or 5.7%, to 996.23. Its 14.6% five-day decline is the biggest since the five days that included the October 1987 stock-market crash and the index stands 21% lower than it was just one month ago. The S&P 500 is now down 36% from its peak a year ago, almost to the day, on October 9, 2007. The NASDAQ fell 108 points or 4.3% to 1862.
If you woke up early this morning, the news did not seem much better. But then at 7:00 am, history was made: in a coordinated global effort, the world’s central banks announced cuts in target interest rates. The US Fed, the European Central Bank (ECB), the Bank of England, the Bank of Canada, Sveriges Riksbank and the Swiss National Bank all reduced their respective policy interest rates by 50 basis points or a half of a percentage point. The Fed's open market committee voted unanimously to cut its target to 1.5%, the ECB to 3.75%, the Bank of England to 4.50% and the Swiss to 2.5%. The dramatic action was intended to help stem a growing global financial crisis. The Fed noted that “The recent intensification of the financial crisis has augmented the downside risks to growth and thus has diminished further the upside risks to price stability."
The unprecedented action is a good step forward, leading me back to October, 1987. At that time, fear gripped investors and everyone bailed out simultaneously. While our crash was not as dramatic because it took place over the course of weeks, not in a single day, this period will likely be seen as what academic Charles Kindleberger called the “revulsion stage” of a crisis---the indiscriminate and contagious selling of distressed assets that leads “banks to stop lending on the collateral of such assets.” When such fear grips the markets, investors (and speculators) are quick to generalize-punishing many for the sins of the few. That’s the most dangerous phase of any crisis—when market implosions start to take on a self-reinforcing life of their own. It is worth noting that sometimes the painful “revulsion” stage sets up the next phase of the process, where investors and markets remember how to breathe.
In 1987, the stock market regained its footing after October 19th and the crash marked the low point for stocks in 1987 and by year-end, the Dow actually showed a gain for the year! Within nine months, stocks recovered all of the losses incurred on October 19th and the US economy never went into a recession as a result of the crash. Given the unwinding that is occurring, it is doubtful that we will avoid recession this time around, but sometimes it is helpful to return to other turbulent periods to help us put our current situation in context a bit more.
The selling was not prompted by anything new—same old credit crisis which has now morphed into blind fear. After gains at the start of the session, stocks turned down steadily and the losses accelerated, leaving the Dow down 508.39 points, or 5.1%, at 9447.11, its lowest close since Sept. 30, 2003. The Dow shed nearly 13% in the past 5 trading sessions, the largest drop since September 2001. The 1403.55-point decline was the Dow's biggest 5-day drop ever, and that doesn't include a 778-point drop on Sept. 29. The Dow is now down 33% from its record high reached almost exactly a year ago.
The damage was worse for the S&P 500, which closed yesterday below the psychologically important 1000 level for the first time since Sept. 30, 2003. The S&P fell 60.66 points, or 5.7%, to 996.23. Its 14.6% five-day decline is the biggest since the five days that included the October 1987 stock-market crash and the index stands 21% lower than it was just one month ago. The S&P 500 is now down 36% from its peak a year ago, almost to the day, on October 9, 2007. The NASDAQ fell 108 points or 4.3% to 1862.
If you woke up early this morning, the news did not seem much better. But then at 7:00 am, history was made: in a coordinated global effort, the world’s central banks announced cuts in target interest rates. The US Fed, the European Central Bank (ECB), the Bank of England, the Bank of Canada, Sveriges Riksbank and the Swiss National Bank all reduced their respective policy interest rates by 50 basis points or a half of a percentage point. The Fed's open market committee voted unanimously to cut its target to 1.5%, the ECB to 3.75%, the Bank of England to 4.50% and the Swiss to 2.5%. The dramatic action was intended to help stem a growing global financial crisis. The Fed noted that “The recent intensification of the financial crisis has augmented the downside risks to growth and thus has diminished further the upside risks to price stability."
The unprecedented action is a good step forward, leading me back to October, 1987. At that time, fear gripped investors and everyone bailed out simultaneously. While our crash was not as dramatic because it took place over the course of weeks, not in a single day, this period will likely be seen as what academic Charles Kindleberger called the “revulsion stage” of a crisis---the indiscriminate and contagious selling of distressed assets that leads “banks to stop lending on the collateral of such assets.” When such fear grips the markets, investors (and speculators) are quick to generalize-punishing many for the sins of the few. That’s the most dangerous phase of any crisis—when market implosions start to take on a self-reinforcing life of their own. It is worth noting that sometimes the painful “revulsion” stage sets up the next phase of the process, where investors and markets remember how to breathe.
In 1987, the stock market regained its footing after October 19th and the crash marked the low point for stocks in 1987 and by year-end, the Dow actually showed a gain for the year! Within nine months, stocks recovered all of the losses incurred on October 19th and the US economy never went into a recession as a result of the crash. Given the unwinding that is occurring, it is doubtful that we will avoid recession this time around, but sometimes it is helpful to return to other turbulent periods to help us put our current situation in context a bit more.
Tuesday, October 7, 2008
Fear and Loathing on Wall Street
To date, yesterday was the maximum point of fear and loathing for investors in this latest market meltdown. Billions of dollars fled securities markets all over the globe, if only to seek respite from the damage that has occurred. Sure TARP may make it better than it could have been, but the view from these folks is clear: “I am willing to miss the next potential leg up in asset prices to avoid further pain on the downside.”
Unfortunately we are living in a time where fundamentals are no longer active. Psychology rules the day and as a result, fear is propelling investors to retrench and go to cash. Maybe you are one of those people who just can’t take it anymore. My advice is that if you can’t sleep, then by all means, make a change. But if you can take a longer view, you may be rewarded for your courage—and courage these days may in fact be the simple action of remaining in your diversified portfolio. (Hopefully you came into September with your money allocated among different asset classes, which has shielded you from the worst of the sell-off.)
Many are wondering how it got so bad so quickly—the answer is clear: the pressures have been building in the credit system for fourteen months and they are now evident for all to see. There has been a growing reluctance among financial institutions to offer basic loans that are the lifeblood of the economic system. Banks don’t want to lend to beleaguered consumers, but worse, they don’t want to lend to another institution if they suspect even the tiniest hint of problems with the counter-party’s balance sheet.
The evidence of this trend can be seen in the Fed’s recent data, which indicated that lenders reduced short-term loans to companies by a record $94.9 billion, bringing the total decline to $208B over the past three weeks. Commercial paper outstanding is down 14% from a year earlier, which is one of the reasons that GE, arguably one of the best companies in the world that continues to operate in the black, could not raise money and had to basically give a piece of the company to Warren Buffett to raise sufficient capital.
As anxiety intensified, so too did fear -- the Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index or VIX, jumped almost 25% percent to a record high of 57.55, before slightly paring gains to trade at 52.05. To put that number in perspective, the last time the VIX was even close to this level was at the height of earlier economic or financial market dislocations, including the 1997 Asian crisis, 1998 Russian financial market crisis, 9-11 terrorist attacks and the economic crisis involving several South American countries in mid-2002. The elevated VIX is just one sign that investors do not trust any asset. Of course the other sign is the stock market, which tumbled to fresh lows on the year.
At its lowest point, the Dow was off 800 points yesterday afternoon, its biggest intraday drop on record. It regained ground at the end of the session to close down 369.88 points, or 3.6%, at 9955.50. The Dow closed below the 10,000 mark for the first time since Oct. 26, 2004. The S&P 500 fell 42 points, or 3.9%, to end at 1,056 and the Nasdaq lost 84 points, or 3.8%, to finish at 1,862. In a bright spot for consumers, crude-oil futures closed at $87.81, down $6.07, or 6.5%, while treasury bonds rallied along with gold as investors sought safe havens from market volatility.
In the end, you can’t be self-delusional about what’s going on – it’s pretty bad out there as investors absorb the structural, sentimental, technical and real economic worries that are plaguing markets and credit investors. Those hurdles aren’t likely to disappear any time soon, and the lack of liquidity clearly isn’t helping. However, by many measures, it appears that we have hit extremes, from sentiment, to performance, to valuation. We are likely to slowly transition away from the fear, loathing and systemic panic that has gripped markets and hopefully emerge with nerves frayed, but the future more secure.
Unfortunately we are living in a time where fundamentals are no longer active. Psychology rules the day and as a result, fear is propelling investors to retrench and go to cash. Maybe you are one of those people who just can’t take it anymore. My advice is that if you can’t sleep, then by all means, make a change. But if you can take a longer view, you may be rewarded for your courage—and courage these days may in fact be the simple action of remaining in your diversified portfolio. (Hopefully you came into September with your money allocated among different asset classes, which has shielded you from the worst of the sell-off.)
Many are wondering how it got so bad so quickly—the answer is clear: the pressures have been building in the credit system for fourteen months and they are now evident for all to see. There has been a growing reluctance among financial institutions to offer basic loans that are the lifeblood of the economic system. Banks don’t want to lend to beleaguered consumers, but worse, they don’t want to lend to another institution if they suspect even the tiniest hint of problems with the counter-party’s balance sheet.
The evidence of this trend can be seen in the Fed’s recent data, which indicated that lenders reduced short-term loans to companies by a record $94.9 billion, bringing the total decline to $208B over the past three weeks. Commercial paper outstanding is down 14% from a year earlier, which is one of the reasons that GE, arguably one of the best companies in the world that continues to operate in the black, could not raise money and had to basically give a piece of the company to Warren Buffett to raise sufficient capital.
As anxiety intensified, so too did fear -- the Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index or VIX, jumped almost 25% percent to a record high of 57.55, before slightly paring gains to trade at 52.05. To put that number in perspective, the last time the VIX was even close to this level was at the height of earlier economic or financial market dislocations, including the 1997 Asian crisis, 1998 Russian financial market crisis, 9-11 terrorist attacks and the economic crisis involving several South American countries in mid-2002. The elevated VIX is just one sign that investors do not trust any asset. Of course the other sign is the stock market, which tumbled to fresh lows on the year.
At its lowest point, the Dow was off 800 points yesterday afternoon, its biggest intraday drop on record. It regained ground at the end of the session to close down 369.88 points, or 3.6%, at 9955.50. The Dow closed below the 10,000 mark for the first time since Oct. 26, 2004. The S&P 500 fell 42 points, or 3.9%, to end at 1,056 and the Nasdaq lost 84 points, or 3.8%, to finish at 1,862. In a bright spot for consumers, crude-oil futures closed at $87.81, down $6.07, or 6.5%, while treasury bonds rallied along with gold as investors sought safe havens from market volatility.
In the end, you can’t be self-delusional about what’s going on – it’s pretty bad out there as investors absorb the structural, sentimental, technical and real economic worries that are plaguing markets and credit investors. Those hurdles aren’t likely to disappear any time soon, and the lack of liquidity clearly isn’t helping. However, by many measures, it appears that we have hit extremes, from sentiment, to performance, to valuation. We are likely to slowly transition away from the fear, loathing and systemic panic that has gripped markets and hopefully emerge with nerves frayed, but the future more secure.
Monday, October 6, 2008
EESA Does It
The Senate voted yes, the House voted yes and finally, President Bush signed the Emergency Economic Stabilization Act of 2008 (“EESA”) into law on Friday. While there were a bunch of now-famous additions to the original proposal, the core remains the same. EESA establishes the Troubled Asset Relief Program (“TARP”), through which the Treasury will have up to $700 billion to purchase toxic mortgages, securities and related assets from financial institutions with significant operations in the US.
The variations on the original theme include: the government will take equity stakes in companies participating in the rescue; those firms participating in the program will agree to limited compensation for executives, barring golden parachutes; the administration must develop a plan to ease the wave of foreclosures through modifying loans acquired by the government, with the goal of preventing more foreclosures; Paulson’s spending decisions will be subject to strong oversight and judicial review; FDIC limits will increase to $250,000 from $100,000; and the law calls for a study of mark-to-market accounting for financial assets and invites the SEC to suspend the rule if it deems prudent to do so.
Apart from EESA, the omnibus financial recovery legislation includes the provisions from a bill known as the “Renewable Energy and Job Creation Act of 2008” that the Senate, but not the House had previously passed. The addition of these provisions to the legislation is widely perceived as ultimately having aided its passage by Congress. Highlights include: approximately $18 billion in tax incentives for clean energy; an increase of the AMT threshold; tax relief measures for those affected by recent natural disasters; extension of several business and individual tax credits and deductions that had or were set to expire at the end of the year; amendment of ERISA to establish parity for mental health treatment in the US health care system.
OK, that’s a lot of extra stuff, but many in Congress finally were knocked over the head with the severity of the problem when stock markets tumbled and credit spreads widened. As Republican Representative Paul Ryan of Wisconsin noted, many lawmakers realized that this could be a "Herbert Hoover moment, where he sat by and let a Wall Street crash turn into a Great Depression . . . There are times when free-markets stop and rational thinking goes out the window. It then isn't enough to be a laissez-faire conservative and let Rome burn . . . This bill is not perfect, but doing nothing is far worse than passing this bill."
At the end of the day, the economy can’t function when credit ceases to flow. If this bill helps that process, then we will all be better served. For those who seek revenge on that ubiquitous “greedy Wall Street fat cat”, it might be worth considering the following: if the crisis persisted and his net worth dropped from $25 million to $5 million, he still has $5 million and will be just fine. You on the other hand, could lose your job, watch your home equity erode, lose basic services from your town and if you are lucky enough to have a retirement account, you may see the value erode. Enough said? Now let’s get going and remember, EESA does it along the way.
The variations on the original theme include: the government will take equity stakes in companies participating in the rescue; those firms participating in the program will agree to limited compensation for executives, barring golden parachutes; the administration must develop a plan to ease the wave of foreclosures through modifying loans acquired by the government, with the goal of preventing more foreclosures; Paulson’s spending decisions will be subject to strong oversight and judicial review; FDIC limits will increase to $250,000 from $100,000; and the law calls for a study of mark-to-market accounting for financial assets and invites the SEC to suspend the rule if it deems prudent to do so.
Apart from EESA, the omnibus financial recovery legislation includes the provisions from a bill known as the “Renewable Energy and Job Creation Act of 2008” that the Senate, but not the House had previously passed. The addition of these provisions to the legislation is widely perceived as ultimately having aided its passage by Congress. Highlights include: approximately $18 billion in tax incentives for clean energy; an increase of the AMT threshold; tax relief measures for those affected by recent natural disasters; extension of several business and individual tax credits and deductions that had or were set to expire at the end of the year; amendment of ERISA to establish parity for mental health treatment in the US health care system.
OK, that’s a lot of extra stuff, but many in Congress finally were knocked over the head with the severity of the problem when stock markets tumbled and credit spreads widened. As Republican Representative Paul Ryan of Wisconsin noted, many lawmakers realized that this could be a "Herbert Hoover moment, where he sat by and let a Wall Street crash turn into a Great Depression . . . There are times when free-markets stop and rational thinking goes out the window. It then isn't enough to be a laissez-faire conservative and let Rome burn . . . This bill is not perfect, but doing nothing is far worse than passing this bill."
At the end of the day, the economy can’t function when credit ceases to flow. If this bill helps that process, then we will all be better served. For those who seek revenge on that ubiquitous “greedy Wall Street fat cat”, it might be worth considering the following: if the crisis persisted and his net worth dropped from $25 million to $5 million, he still has $5 million and will be just fine. You on the other hand, could lose your job, watch your home equity erode, lose basic services from your town and if you are lucky enough to have a retirement account, you may see the value erode. Enough said? Now let’s get going and remember, EESA does it along the way.
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